In February in Southern Ontario, a warm week – combined with high levels of precipitation – submerged many parts of the region underwater, leading to terrifying scenarios like the one captured in the excerpt below. According to cbc.ca, reports of flooding stretched across Southern Ontario, including London, Waterloo, Cambridge, Dunnville, St. Marys, Chatham-Kent and Orangeville; flood warnings, watches, and outlooks were issued for 23 regions in Ontario between February 16th and February 21st. As of February 22nd, 2,200 homes and nearly 5,000 residents had been displaced in Brantford, Ontario – a community hit particularly hard by the flooding of the Grand River.
“Ontario Provincial Police Const. Paul Nancekevell said the boy’s mother was driving near the river at about 1 a.m. on Wednesday when her vehicle plunged into the rapidly rising waters. ‘His mom got out of the car, she pulled him from the car, but she lost her grip on him and he was swept downriver,’ Nancekevell said. ‘They were in the middle of fast flowing water.’”
In Orangeville, the search for the toddler whisked away by the current continues. As this article goes to print, officials in Brantford are conducting a vast search for the child, using helicopters and dive teams as part of their effort.
During this particular week, temperatures soared past their annual averages by a sizeable margin. This led to a near-instant melt of accumulated snow in the area. Coupled with 33 cm of rain over the same period, the combination of both factors led to water levels rising and increased pressure on city infrastructure. According to Jason Wintermute, Water Management Supervisor for the Lower Thames Valley Conservation Authority (LTVCA), the Thames River is expected to rise to levels not seen in a decade. In addition to the rise of water levels in the region, record durations of fog were reported, causing up to two-hour busing delays in certain municipalities and increasing the risk of automotive accidents.
In light of the recent events in Southern Ontario, and the likely chance that these conditions may re-appear in the near-future, asset management planning that takes climate change factors into account as part of its risk matrix would be well-advised.
While it may be too late to reverse climate and weather patterns, precautions can be taken to hazard against climate-induced disasters; introducing municipal climate change adaptation considerations into municipal asset management planning can act precisely as this type of bulwark. In a standard asset management plan, municipalities will take stock of some or all of the organization’s assets, and from there, determine the current state of infrastructure and develop a financial strategy to achieve sustainability. The plans are based on a calculated matrix of factors, including risk, cost, and desired levels of service.
In light of the recent events in Southern Ontario, and the likely chance that these conditions may re-appear in the near-future, asset management planning that takes municipal climate change adaptation factors into account as part of its risk matrix would be well-advised. For example, Storm Network-A may be at risk of failing in X number of years without proper maintenance and added capital investment where needed. However, if we assume that climate patterns may continue to be volatile, Storm Network-A may face increased pressure due to water levels that rise more frequently. This leads to increased risk and a shorter lifecycle for the storm network. Without considering climate change factors, the wrong maintenance methods may be applied at the wrong time. The consequences in this scenario could prove harmful; the underfunding of assets that require more maintenance, or applying maintenance method during the wrong phase of the asset’s lifecycle, could lead to budget overruns and ‘premature’ failures.
In the case of Southern Ontario, more than just storm networks were affected by the rising water levels of the Grand River. Flooding puts strain on roadways. On February 21st, the community of Port Burwell, which lies southeast of London, witnessed substantial erosion to an entire section of one of its rural two-way roads. The built-up rainwater washed away the asphalt and its various subcomponents, as well as layers of earth beneath it. It is possible that proper asset management planning may not have deterred that particular level of force, but it may have limited the damage caused at a lower cost than it will be to replace the asset.
On a much smaller scale, the increased levels of fog increase the risk to fleet assets (in addition to other privately-owned vehicles). As dense fog persists, especially during heavy traffic periods, accidents will become more frequent. Although fog is less likely, it puts added stress on emergency services and their vehicles. To incorporate municipal climate change adaptation into asset management planning may alleviate this potential burden.
It appears that climate change and increasingly volatile weather patterns are here to stay. In addition to flooding and fogging, increased temperatures, higher winds and other changing conditions will continue to affect the way that municipalities prepare for, and recover from, them. We may be unable to prevent these disasters from happening, but we can minimize the impact by building these potential events into everyday asset management planning.
